The 2013 hurricane season was predicted to be stronger than average, but the season was almost record quiet. Mid-range forecasting is different from shorter (weather) or longer (climate) time frames.
Why It Matters
- Weather predictions go out several days. Climate forecasting extends out years. Between those two, forecasting what will happen in weeks or months is different.
- Mid-range forecasts are strengthened when more groups combine their predictions.
- Forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season is important to insurance companies and government agencies.
With the links below, learn more about mid-range forecasting. Then answer the following questions.
- Met Office, Forecasting months and years ahead (video): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwDb6a7fE7Q
- Climate Central, What Happened to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season? (article): http://www.climatecentral.org/news/what-happened-to-the-2013-atlantic-hurricane-season-16616
- What is included in a mid-range forecast that is not included in a weather forecast?
- Who needs mid-range forecasts and why?
- What are the reasons that forecasters thought 2013 would be an active hurricane season?
- Why do they think 2013 was an inactive season?
- What can researchers do to try to make their forecasts more accurate?
- What is the disadvantage of having a long time between major hurricanes?